November 2010
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Global slowdown to beat Asia Growth in 2011


Mumbai: Even if Asia will end this year with strong growth, export-based Asian economies will take a beat from the struggling recovery in the U.S. and Europe, according to Reuters quarterly poll.


Economists revised the forecasts for 2010 growth for most economies in a poll of 13 countries, excluding Japan. They revised down their 2011 forecasts compared with the last quarterly poll in July, citing reduced government stimulus and a slow recovery in the U.S.
Asia's third-biggest economy, India is expected to grow 8.4 percent in the year to March 2011, unchanged from the July poll, and 8.3 percent in 2011-12, down from 8.5 percent in the previous poll. GDP rose 7.4 percent in 2009-10.

"The slowdown has clearly begun in terms of the industrial cycle and that will continue," according to economist Robert Prior-Wandesforde of Credit Suisse. "The slowdown could be abrupt and surprise many by the extent of the weakness," he added.


According to the poll, China's economy is expected to grow 10 percent in 2010, unchanged from the previous poll in July.


Benefiting from strong demand for resources from China and India, Australia is expected to grow 3.4 percent in 2010 and 3.5 percent in 2011 as booming export earnings fuel a record rise in mining investment and broad-based gains in jobs and incomes.


Asian demand has already driven massive price increases for coal and iron ore, Australia's two biggest exports, and turned the country's perennial trade deficit into a surplus, setting it far apart from most other rich nations. South Korea and Taiwan will also see slower growth in 2011. South Korea is now forecast to expand by 6.1 percent in 2010, up from 5.7 percent in the July survey.


Taiwan's 2010 growth forecast was revised up to 8.5 percent from the previous poll's 7.5 percent. Due to the strong demand for electronics, drugs and rush of tourists to its two new casino resorts, Singapore is expected to lead the growth in South Asia.

 
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